The Rise of China in International Politics

The rising economic status of China has raised eyebrows, especially in international politics, due to its continued advancements which have threatened the countries formerly considered to be the superpowers. Despite being held together in an economically and financially mutual relationship, the two countries' future remains gloomy because of the possibility of future war that will lead to parting ways between the countries. The status quo of the US being a superpower would be the most triggering factor for the rise of the war because of the wish not to be challenged by a 'mere' China, which according to the US, is a rising power. Before World War 1, the countries involved enjoyed good relations. This, however, did not stop the onset of the war, which caused cataclysmic effects (Hinck et al., 2019). Thus, it is very evident that despite the good relations enjoyed by USA and China, there is a high chance that the two countries will collide in the future, leading to another disastrous war.

The systems and state lenses have been used imperatively to view the rise of China to its top status as a powerful nation. The invulnerable confidence of the Americans in being invincible made them perceive warfare through a state lens that no other Nation was capable of conquering them. Because of the conviction in the invincible position, the US gave up its industrial capacity to allow other countries, especially China, to flourish similarly. This idea enabled China to enlist in the world community and expand its prosperity through the Chinese Communist Party (Hinck et al., 2019). China took advantage of the situation to expand its dominance technically in artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and industrial capacity. These changes aided China in consolidating its position, perfecting its methods of mind control over its populace, and beginning the deliberate destruction of the United States. Since then, China has imposed a balance of power that marginalizes the United States and other nations unless they support its goals. These initiatives have built China as a nation by making sure that China's voice is heard on international stages, most notably by the UN

.

The Power Transition Theory (PTT) argument in replacement of the concept of satisfaction and China's commitment to change are among the factors that castigate the China war. China’s prowess at war depends on the transition of power between the dominant state which currently is the US and itself being a challenger of the superpower status of the US. According to PTT, the dominant power is considered to make decisions that overrule all the other players, making it more powerful than the rest (Hinck et al., 2019). The occurrence of war is thus dependent on whether or not the challenger is satisfied by the actions of the dominant power. Therefore, when China fails to comply with the terms put in place by the US, it may be forced to challenge it by fighting back with the hopes of overturning the dominant player. The power transition theorists believe that this tussle of superiority between the supper power and the challenger creates the required minimum grounds for the occurrence of war.   

The substantial advancement in Chinese military powers also forms a basic factor for China’s war. With the multimillion investment in the industrial base and being technologically dominant in the artificial intelligence sector, China has gained the confidence to retaliate against any superpower that resists or interferes with them. The US is a superpower that is well-equipped and would adversely challenge any attempt by any country to change the status quo. This will involve using military force by both parties who want to prove the other wrong. Again, PTT theorists argue that in order for a country to stage against a superpower, the country is obliged to involve itself with ordinary machinery. This is to say, therefore, that the growth of China’s military strength signifies an intention to overturn the superpowers.

Conditions Under Which China’s Rise May Lead to War

According to offensive realism theory, the causes of war may not necessarily be because of security purposes. Some wars may be for non-structural factors, which include nationalism and political calculations of given state power (Alenezi et al, 2020). One of the conditions under which China’s rise will lead to war is the occasion that there will be no agreement between the supposed superpowers and China. This may escalate further if China fails to tame its thirst for power considering its recent technological and economic adjustments. The possible consequences of China's ascent are very clear when materially considered. The more wealthy and affluent China develops, the more possible it is that it will intimidate its neighbors, inciting other East Asian nations to join forces with the US to wage war on China.

Consequently, the Offence Defense theory argues that war is more likely to occur when it is perceived as easy by either political divide. China may perceive a war with the US as ‘easy’ because of the wide range of machinery and weapons they possess (Alenezi et al, 2020). This may convince them to consider starting a war with their rivals who would retaliate to defend their status quo of being a superpower. Moreover, a possible formation of alliances especially between the US and East Asian countries may cause a great threat to China which is already claiming superiority and would therefore wish to retaliate and prove its prowess in wars.

Conditions Under Which there will be Ongoing Cooperation and Conditions that may Affect the Likelihood of War

Unlike before World War I, when the parties had buried their good deep relations, China and the US have enjoyed a large spectrum of mutually beneficial relationships. This is evident in the fact that many nations have come to terms with the continuous rise of China. Countries such as Vietnam and South Korea may have lined up with the US against China, but as things are, they have found it accommodating. Otherwise, China’s growth should have triggered the war with the East Asian states.

Furthermore, because China is gradually taking the lead in the zone, its anticipated rise to become the dominant power in Asian Countries has been backed with enhanced stability, contrary to the anticipation by pessimists (Weiss, 2019). East Asian nations who genuinely trust China's claims and hence do not fear its growth and instead desire to benefit from it have welcomed China's decision to tell its neighbors about its capabilities and intents. The security conundrum is resolved by this mutual awareness of China's inclinations and constrained objectives.

Taking a look into the Asian region, Japan is the only country with the potential to challenge China's dominance in the region. It has however not acted in a manner likely to suggest that it intends to challenge China either currently or in the future. This is owed to the good relations between the two countries. Despite the unresolved traditional rivalry and territorial disputes between the two countries, it is noteworthy that the nations’ economic connections have been rapidly growing. The current relationship between the two countries thereby may negatively affect the likelihood of war.

Optimistic or Pessimistic?

The rise of China has poked several contradictions as to whether or not there will be a good ending. There are intense tensions between China and US which serves as the dominant superpower. China is, of course, causing a massive threat to the US because of its massive economic stability compared to the Soviet Union times (Degterev et al., 2021). On the better end, China, in one way or another other, has a mutually beneficial relationship with countries poised to be its greatest rival in the anticipated war. States in East Asia agree with China that despite gaining power, it has become more circumspect in communicating its goals to other Asian nations. China's power has grown over the past few decades, but during that time it has also moderated its rhetoric, resolved several territorial disputes with its rivals, and engaged several international and local organizations. Engagements with international organizations which have played a vital role in peaceful co-existence between countries have established China as a democratic country that will barely cause a reason for war.

China is already considered a superpower because it possesses all the necessary military equipment and has reached the same economic level as superpower countries. These actions by China do not suggest a future misunderstanding that may cause conflicts. It has conducted itself maturely, which has created a good reputation with its neighboring states (Hinck et al., 2018). It is therefore important to note that despite the fears associated with China’s rise, there are possible more positive outcomes than the harm that may arise from China’s rise to superiority.

Even if tangible factors are important in evaluating whether China's rise to glory will be unstable, it is important to draw attention to undervalued elements like knowledge and judgments of inclinations. Focusing on how China interacts with its counterparts shows that East Asia will accept China's rise rather than fight it.

References

Degterev, D. A., Ramich, M. S., & Tsvyk, A. V. (2021). US-China:“Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 21(2), 210-231. https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2021-21-2-210-231

Hinck, R., Manly, J., Kluver, R., & Norris, W. (2018). Geopolitical Dimensions of" The China Dream": Exploring Strategic Narratives of the Chinese Communist Party. China Media Research, 14(3). https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/58354483/China_Dream-with-cover-page-v2.pdf?Expires=1666243137&Signature=XbxevyrmRfaiXF9g-NX9YfYbso-2XNN6RyDe1WU6I5J5YTRCxkHLGidnyZFNnsht4RjA79Ne0Jj-LQ0b2tGnfDLRctnM3lwnkJmCraEqKUMtybuAxBnaKZT7JNWGUt1mFn1ldrW~eOIGuV4dD0o8eNGHVcI6haJQ150P0fveME04bVU34dVzdaQEsKHnYmeU~3n5Wn9zXJXoUyIZS-O2GMFxRpuBStpmzQBddA8ZGKkoARHvY6kcTYh-Em-m-ks1CyaDtEKICAWovsmvWpk39OZSVeR9LPzWGyTTq0EGQ~kpWKo8S97oDh3F7OJVaA67i0HKMDBtANktqrLjkMJLoA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA

Weiss, J. C. (2019). A world safe for autocracy: China's rise and the future of global politics. Foreign Aff., 98, 92. http://www.jessicachenweiss.com/uploads/3/0/6/3/30636001/weiss_2019_fa_a_world_safe_for_autocracy.pdf

Alenezi, D. A. (2020). US rebalance strategy to Asia and US-China rivalry in South China Sea from the perspective of the offensive realism. Review of Economics and Political Science. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/REPS-10-2019-0132/full/html