According to Snyderman et al., (2002) it could be challenging to predict the supply of physician workforce. Research conducted in 1980 by Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee(GMENAC) indicated that there would be an oversupply of physicians by 2000. Although the research was criticized and the mathematical procedures questioned, the Health Maintenance Organizations (HMO) confirmed the findings (Snyderman et al., 2002). On the other hand, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) advocated that they would be a decrease in the supply of physicians. However, by 2000, there was an increased shortage of physicians, and the research predictions by HMO and GMENAC were proven wrong (Snyderman et al., 2002). According to Cooper, having an oversupply of physicians could lead to problems in the healthcare sector. Still, the shortage of physicians is expected to continue for several decades, which could seriously threaten the healthcare sector. A shortage of physicians could lead to contracting physician services to non-physicians to cater to the rising demand and low supply (Snyderman et al., 2002). However, physician shortage results from increased demand for medical services than the supply of healthcare professionals. This is due to drastically changing demographic factors, such as an increasingly aging population prone to chronic illnesses leading to increased demand for healthcare services. Therefore, although some researchers, such as the ones conducted by AAMC, and GMENAC, predict an increased supply of physicians, it is evident that the population is growing rapidly, and there is an increase in the aged population which increases the demand for healthcare services beyond the available supply.

However, physicians play a critical role in enhancing the well-being of people, and a shortage could affect the population's overall health. For instance, in the United States, there is increased population growth, an aging population, and a higher number of the insured population, increasing care accessibility and the demand for healthcare services (Zhang et al., 2020). Therefore, the physician shortage could affect health plans, quality metrics, and accessibility of healthcare. Physician shortage also reduces the ability to establish provider networks; hence, it could be challenging to deflate its impact (Schnack et al., 2022). In addition, with a reduced supply of physicians, the available physicians are forced to work for longer hours leading to burnout and physical and mental health issues. Hence, a shortage of physicians leads to increased waiting for patients to receive care and overworked and overwhelmed healthcare providers reducing their ability to deliver quality care (Gupta, 2022). Another implication of physician shortage is the delayed treatment procedures as the number of patients seeking care is more, and the service providers are limited, hindering their ability to offer faster services which could increase the mortality rate (Gemelas, 2020). Furthermore, according to Snyderman et al., (2002), shortage of physicians could necessitate the contracting of non-physician personnel to perform physician services to cater to the increasing demand. Therefore, there are various implications of physician shortage, such as increased physician burnout, waiting time, increased physical and mental health issues for physicians, low-quality healthcare, and increased mortality rate.

Although some research, such as the ones conducted by AAMC, and GMENAC, predict an increased supply of physicians, there is an increase in the demand for healthcare services beyond the available supply. In addition, research indicates that an increase in population growth increases aging populations, and affordability of care results in high demand for healthcare services and reduced supply, which presents a significant problem in the healthcare sector. However, a shortage in the supply of medical care providers could lead to increased mortality rate, patient waiting time for treatment, health implications for physicians and increased burnout, and low-quality services.

References

Gemelas, J. C. (2020). Post‐ACA trends in the US primary care physician shortage with index of relative rurality. The Journal of Rural Health, 37(4), 700–704. doi.org/10.1111/jrh.12506

Gupta, S. (2022, September 22). Council post: Technological fixes to ease the labor shortage issues in healthcare. Forbes. forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/09/21/technological-fixes-to-ease-the-labor-shortage-issues-in-healthcare/

Schnack, H., Uthoff, S. A., & Ansmann, L. (2022). The perceived impact of physician shortages on human resource strategies in German hospitals – A resource dependency perspective. Journal of Health Organization and Management, 36(9), 196–211. doi.org/10.1108/jhom-05-2021-0203

Snyderman, R., Sheldon, G. F., & Bischoff, T. A. (2002). Gauging supply and demand: The challenging quest to predict the future physician workforce. Health Affairs, 21(1), 167–168. doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.21.1.167

Zhang, X., Lin, D., Pforsich, H., & Lin, V. W. (2020). Physician workforce in the United States of America: Forecasting nationwide shortages. Human Resources for Health, 18(1). doi.org/10.1186/s12960-020-0448-3